No, really, I hate the Flyers

I recently had an argument with a friend about whether or not I'm entitled to hate the Philidelphia Flyers as much as I do.

My friend, a New Jersey Devils fan, mentioned that he planned on throwing a party should the Flyers emerge victorious from a potential Flyers-Penguins first round series.  I told him that the Flyers were my New York Yankees of hockey: they must lose in the playoffs, at any cost, no matter what despicable franchise I have to root for (I'm looking at you, Phillies).

My friend was enraged.  "You haven't watched the Rangers long enough to feel that way.  And you've had nothing but success against them!  Have you even ever seen the Rangers lose to the Flyers?"

The answer is "no."  I've followed this season of the New York Rangers closer than I have any other season for any other team, but the truth is that I only started following the team as closely as I do since the playoffs last season.  I've seen all seven of the Rangers last games versus Philly, and New York won all 7.

I told him about my hatred of Philly in general that carries over from other sports, particularly baseball.  But that isn't the real reason that I have chosen the Flyers as the club I most love to hate when there are several other deserving franchises (the Devils, Bruins and Islanders come to mind).

My father has followed hockey his entire life, and I regret that my newfound hockey obsession didn't kick in years ago so that we could have shared in the Rangers successes and struggles together.  He lived through the 1970's and the Broad Street Bullies.  He tells me of the rage and misery he was put through as if it happened yesterday.

It's odd that I feel that I've inherited a passionate hatred of a club I have only seen for a couple years, but that's the way I feel.  If for no other reason, I need to keep the torch of hatred burning for my dear father.

Do I hate rival clubs more than I love my favorites?  I can't tell anymore.  I like to think that's not the case, but who am I to say.

Pedro Beato and the Mets 2012 bullpen

The New York Mets made two picks in the 2011 Rule 5 Draft.

In the first round, they selected second baseman Brad Emaus, an OBP guy who seemed like a perfect fit for Sandy Alderson's new Moneyball Mets.

By the end of the year, it was second rounder Pedro Beato who was still in Queens, while Emaus lasted barely a month.

Beato, a right-handed relief pitcher, started the season off with 18.2 innings without allowing a single earned run.  This was the best start to a career in Mets franchise history.

By the end of the year, hitters figured out Beato, and his paltry 1.4 K/BB ration inevitably caught up with him.  His numbers regressed to a 4.30 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

Beato pitched more innings than anyone else last season.  However, this year, the bullpen is no longer the glorified batting practice tossers of 2011.  Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, Jon Rauch, and an improved Bobby Parnell all will be getting more high-leverage innings than Beato.

With less pressure and more experience, can Beato turn himself into an improbable Rule 5 success story?  Not without striking out more batters, especially considering the atrocious defense that has plagued the Mets for the past few seasons.

Beato will get plenty of chances this season to prove he's a major league pitcher, and I believe that he can be a serviceable part of the Mets new bullpen in 2012.

Back away from the ledge: the Mets in 2012

    Why are the New York Mets the laughing stock of Major League Baseball?

                They certainly aren’t the league’s worst team.  They also haven’t endured decades of futility, like as the Royals and Pirates.

                Their infamous collapse at the end of the 2007 season was certainly memorable, and there most recent seasons have not been successful, but does the struggling franchise warrant all of the negative attention it receives?

                What makes the Mets different from other struggling teams is that they spend a lot of money and they play in New York.  Their high profile and proximity to the New York Yankees make them an obvious target for derision.

                Will the 2012 season for the Mets validate the criticism, or silence it?

Strengths

                The news in New York isn’t all bad-far from it, actually.  Arguably the most interesting aspect of this team is its younger players.  After a stellar start to the 2011 season before a bizarre injury sidelined Ike Davis for the season (.302/.383/.543 with 7 HRs in 149 PAs), it will be interesting to see what the 25-year old can do over the course of a full season.  Ruben Tejada is hardly an “exciting” prospect, especially considering whose cleats he is attempting to fill, but this season will shed light on whether or not Tejada is a capable table-setter (.280/.360 in 276 PAs) or if his numbers last season were a fluke and he is, in fact, all glove and no bat.  Lucas Duda (.292/.370/.482 with 10 HRs in 347 PAs) posted numbers that are pretty hard to complain about last season; the question is whether or not the 25-year old outfielder can sustain those numbers over an entire season.

                On the other side of the ball, there are several young arms that have the potential to take big steps forward in New York this season.  25-year olds Jon Neise and Dillon Gee will both be relied on heavily during the season.  For Neise, many signs point towards a breakout year for the young lefty.  Since 1962, there have been 316 seasons in which a starting pitcher threw 150 inning while striking out at least 7 batters per nine innings, walking less than three per nine innings, and allowing less than one home run per nine innings.  In roughly half of those seasons, the pitcher in question posted an ERA below 3.00, and about 80% of those seasons resulted in a sub-3.50 ERA.  Neise’s 2011 season meets those criteria, and yet he ended his season with relatively poor 4.40 ERA.  The Mets signed Neise to a five-year contract extension based on the belief that his end results will eventually match his peripheral statistics.

                Gee, on the other hand, may be in the opposite situation.  After starting his 2011 campaign 7-0 with a 2.86 ERA (the best start for a rookie in franchise history), Gee ended his season with a 13-6 record and a 4.43 ERA.  2012 will go a long way towards revealing whether Gee’s lackluster finish was an anomaly or simply a regression to the norm.  He’s currently penciled in as the fifth starter, but expect him to take a more prominent role if he gets off to another hot start and Mike Pelfrey falters.

                The team’s other strengths are fairly obvious.  David Wright is still David Wright.  Johan Santana is healthy and on track to make the start on Opening Day.  R.A. Dickey’s 3.08 ERA during his two seasons as a Met is arguably the best storyline the team has had in years.  The bullpen, which was among the league’s worst last year, will be aided by the additions of Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez.

Weaknesses

                The Mets were, by many standards, the worst defensive team in the entire league last season, and a glance at the roster reveals that nothing has changed that could conceivably pull the Mets out of the defensive basement this year.  This is especially bad news for two reasons: the Mets run-scoring, which was actually 6^th-best in the National League and best in the NL East in 2011, will decline without Jose Reyes batting leadoff and Carlos Beltran batting third.  Also, while the Mets have several pitchers who post good strikeout numbers, many prominent hurlers such as Mike Pelfrey rely on their defense fairly heavily.  Even Johan Santana doesn’t put Ks on the board like he used to.  While bad defense is hardly a death sentence (the Cardinals posted the 3^rd-worst UZR in 2011), it certainly won’t be making an already bad situation any better in New York.

                Jason Bay is only 2 years into his 4-year contract with the Mets, which includes a vesting option for a fifth year.  Bay, who made over 18 million dollars last year, followed a disappointing 2010 campaign with a downright disastrous 2011.  In his two seasons with the Mets, Bay has hit 18 home runs, half of the 36 he hit with Boston in 2009.  To call the Bay signing a colossal mistake thusfar would be an understatement, especially considering the delicate financial situation that the Mets are currently in.  Bay’s grip on the starting job in left field is rumored to be in jeopardy, and after posting an OPS only a handful of points above .700 in 2011, I can’t say I’m surprised.

                Health is a perennial weakness for the Mets.  Be it pulled hamstrings, season-ending surgeries or freak accidents, injuries seem to follow the Mets moreso than any other club.  Their recent history of treating said injuries is also infamous; for example, the decision to put Ike Davis in a walking boot after he tripped over David Wright while going for a pop-up ended up costing him his entire season.  For the last several years, one of the biggest questions on Opening Day in Queens is: “Can the Mets stay healthy?”  Recently, the answer to that question has been “no.”

                Losing Jose Reyes is a huge blow, and not only from an offensive standpoint.  Reyes’ energy and talent made him one of the most entertaining players in the league.  There’s more to the drop-off from Reyes to Tejada at shortstop than the 250-point difference in their OPSs last season.

                The Mets have more weaknesses than strengths right now, and they got worse in an offseason where the rest of the division either improved or stood pat.  Perhaps their biggest weakness has nothing to do with injuries and statistics: the Wilpons still own the team, and thanks to the recent developments in the Madoff lawsuit, it looks like that won’t change anytime soon.

Prediction

“Ultimately, the best solution for the Mets is to build a strong core of young players who are coming through the system and can be continuously coming through the system.  And I think if you look at what we have now, we’ve got the potential for that kind of core.  But it’s next generation, together with some of the players that have been longer term.” 

That’s how GM Sandy Alderson summarized his club.  The Mets have several interesting players, as well as some capable youngsters.  The teams best prospects, the ones with star potential, are still in the minors.  The future doesn’t look completely bleak, although it is certainly clouded with question marks.

As for this year, the only thing that remains to be seen appears to be whether or not the Mets will come in 4^th or 5^th.  The Mets won 77 games last season.  The last-place Marlins will assuredly win more than 72 this year, and the Nationals, who were three wins better than the Mets last year, certainly haven’t gotten any worse.  I predict that the Mets will come in fourth place with 75 wins.  For anything better than that, the Mets would need the kind of luck that has eluded them for the past five years.

               

Please, for the love of God, let it be the Wilpons

I believe that either David Wright or the Wilpons will be gone in 2013.

Wright becomes a free agent in 2013, and the 5-6 year deal he will most likely want will be out of our price range as long as the Wilpons are at the helm, as if there already weren't 246 other reasons to want the Wilpons to sell the team.

When David Wright's contract runs out, I want him to be able to sit down and negotiate with a Mets owner who:

1-isn't broke
2-doesn't daydream about owning the Brooklyn Dodgers instead
3-didn't publicly say that he's "not a superstar"
4-isn't relying on loans and minority shares to scrape together enough money to pay for a winning team
5-that last one was basically a rehash of point 1, but it's worth repeating

It's pretty aggravating to see a competent Sandy Alderson forced to pass on guys like Jose Reyes and perhaps Wright, while Omar Minaya essentially had no leash and used his money in all the wrong ways (if Jason Bay is on this team in 2013 and Wright isn't I may not watch a whole lot of baseball).

With any luck, it will be the Wilpons and not David Wright that will be out in 2013.

Scott Howson makes Glen Sather look smart

On February 26th, it was leaked that the New York Rangers were more or less out of the running in the trade discussions for Rick Nash.  I was completely satisfied with this move - borderline proud, even.  I was happy that Rangers General Manager Glen Sather wasn't willing to completely mortgage the team's future for Nash.

On February 27th, Sather sent another offer for Nash as the deadline loomed.  I was not only expecting this, but hoping for it.  I wanted Nash, but only at a reasonable price, and playing hardball at the deadline seemed like a perfect way to lower Columbus' demands.  The Blue Jackets lost a lot of leverage when Nash's agent publicly announced that he wanted a deal done, thus removing the "we don't actually have  to trade him" card from the hand of Columbus GM Scott Howson.  The offer was a serious one; as in, it was a serious overpay.  Not that I don't like Nash, but it was exactly the kind of offer I was afraid of.

Inexplicably, Howson declined the offer of Brandon Dubinsky, Tim Erixon, J.T. Miller, Christian Thomas and a first round draft pick.  I say "inexplicably" because this is exactly what Howson stated that he wanted in return for Nash, and I don't think he will ever find a better offer.  

Nash will almost assuredly be traded this offseason, and almost assuredly for a lower return than the one Howson declined.  Nash wants out.  Howson personally informed the media that it was Nash who wanted to leave Columbus, essentially throwing him under the bus.  Nash also makes a lot of money for a lot of years, and on top of that, is willing to waive his no-trade clause for only a handful of teams.  The odds that these teams will be willing to pay top-dollar to a GM with absolutely zero leverage are nonexistent.  

Howson turned down likely the biggest haul he could possibly manage for Nash, a move all the more bizarre after he traded Jeff Carter for a very unimpressive return.  The Jackets are in for a long, painful rebuild, and because of these moves, Howson may not be around to orchestrate it.  I doubt if it will even be him that negotiates Nash's trade this offseason.

I like being a Giants fan, maybe I should do this more often

I wish I was really hardcore into following pro football, because I would be going ballistic right now.  I'm already very happy, but I'm trying to imagine what I would be feeling if I had just witnessed a team that I follow more closely win for the second time, such as the Rangers or (try not to laugh) the Mets. 

The game struck me as eerily similar to Superbowl 42.  With just minutes left and down on the scoreboard, Eli led the Giants all the way down the field for a dramatic touchdown, a drive immortalized by a miraculous catch, this time by Mario Manningham.  And just like 42, the game ended with a Tom Brady Hail Mary hitting the turf.


Speaking of Brady, there will likely be much criticism lobbed his way during the post-mortems conducted on New England talk radio this week.  Not to imply that one individual cost the Patriots the game, but if I had to lay the blame at someone's feet it would be the to players who dropped passes on New England's final drive.  Wes Welker's was particularly bad (and surprising), and those two plays may very well have sealed the Patriots coffin.

My elegant and complex Superbowl plans

Having turned down an invitation to watch the Superbowl in a crowded room with lots of drunk people I don't know, it looks as though I will be watching the game in my dorm room with one or maybe two of my suitemates.  All of the big Giants fans in the suite are home for the weekend, which is perhaps just as well, because now I don't have to hear one of them scream "Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuz" anytime Victor Cruz does one of the following: gets a first down, receives a pass, is shown on camera, successfully ties his shoes, etc.  Should the Giants win, this kid will strip off most of his clothes and run around screaming, as well as likely committing some other unspeakable acts (source: the Giants-Niners game), so it's just as well that he won't be here.  This is also the first sporting event of this magnitude I won't be able to watch with my father or brother, which is definitely something of a letdown.  I'm not a huge football guy, but I root for the Giants because my dad is a longtime fan.  Texting the two of them during the game will have to do. 

Thank God that kid in my suite doesn't know about this little blog.